By Daryl Plummer
Gartner, Inc.
Digitalization and the digital business are catalysts of change that are affecting the human-machine relationship and driving better customer outcomes. The top 10 predictions indicate that computer-based machines are taking a more active role in enhancing human endeavors, because the machines are more connected than ever before, they are sensing their surroundings, and they are becoming smarter. Because of this, they have an increased ability to supplement (or even supplant) human jobs and to reduce the cost of operations. All in all, the trends indicate a near-term future in which machines and humans are co-workers and, possibly, even codependents.
The top 10 Predictions are organized into three categories:
Machines are taking a more-active role in enhancing human endeavors:
1. By 2018, digital business will require 50 per cent less business process workers and 500 percent more key digital business jobs, compared with traditional models.
Near-Term Flag: By year-end 2016, 50 percent of digital transformation initiatives will be unmanageable due to lack of portfolio management skills, leading to a measurable negative lost market share.
2. By 2017, a significant disruptive digital business will be launched that was conceived by a computer algorithm.
Near-Term Flag: Through 2015, the most highly valued initial public offerings (IPOs) will involve companies that combine digital markets with physical logistics to challenge pure physical legacy business ecosystems.
3. By 2018, the total cost of ownership for business operations will be reduced by 30 percent through smart machines and industrialized services.
Near-Term Flag: By 2015, there will be more than 40 vendors with commercially available managed services offerings leveraging smart machines and industrialized services.
4. By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase by 0.5 years due to widespread adoption of wireless health monitoring technology.
Near-Term Flag: By 2017, costs for diabetic care are reduced by 10 percent through the use of smartphones.
Digitalized things are making assisted economic decisions:
5. By year-end 2016, more than $2 billion in online shopping will be performed exclusively by mobile digital assistants.
Near-Term Flag: By year-end 2015, mobile digital assistants will have taken on tactical mundane processes such as filling out names, addresses and credit card information.
6. By 2017, U.S. customers’ mobile engagement behavior will drive mobile commerce revenue in the U.S. to 50 percent of U.S. digital commerce revenue.
Near-Term Flag: A renewed interest in mobile payment will arise in 2015, together with a significant increase in mobile commerce (due in part to the introduction of Apple Pay and similar efforts by competitors, such as Google increasing efforts to drive adoption of its NFC-enabled Google Wallet).
Renovating the customer experience is a digital priority:
7. By 2017, 70 per cent of successful digital business models will rely on deliberately unstable processes designed to shift as customer needs shift.
Near-Term Flag: By the end of 2015, five percent of global organizations will design “supermaneuverable” processes that provide competitive advantage.
8. By 2017, 50 per cent of consumer product investments will be redirected to customer experience innovations.
Near-Term Flag: By 2015, more than half of traditional consumer products will have native digital extensions.
9. By 2017, nearly 20 per cent of durable goods e-tailers will use 3D printing (3DP) to create personalized product offerings.
Near-Term Flag: By 2015, more than 90 percent of durable goods e-tailers will actively seek external partnerships to support the new “personalized” product business models.
10. By 2020, retail businesses that utilize targeted messaging in combination with internal positioning systems (IPS) will see a five per cent increase in sales.
Near-Term Flag: By 2016, there will be an increase in the number of offers from retailers focused on customer location and the length of time in store.
Daryl Plummer is vice president and Gartner Fellow, and he presented the Top 10 Predictions at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
