Meta Group recently released a position paper stating that several technologies billed as “the next big thing” in networking will either never deliver tangible benefits or will require additional maturation before being much use for most organizations. Here are the hyped trends and why you won’t see them shine this year.
1. End-to-end IP quality of service: Among other drawbacks, current end-to-end solutions will work only in a single-vendor environment.
2. IP-based PBXs: These look enticingly low-cost and easy to deploy, but current voice technology is both reliable and scalable and will serve out its five- to seven-year life cycle.
3. Fibre to desktop: Pricing for fibre has decreased 50 per cent, but the cost of active optical components remains prohibitive.
4. Interactive desktop videoconferencing: Lack of quality-of-service guarantees, poor picture quality and relatively low business value will mean a glacial pace of adoption.
5. Broadband wireless: Technological limitations, competing broadband access technologies and regulatory issues contribute to reduced carrier investment.
6. Standard LDAP schemas: The standards-setting process is slow and ensuring common schema structure remains a challenge.
7. XML as a net management panacea: It won’t immediately replace existing frameworks because it’s a language, not an application.
8. Free WAN bandwidth: WAN bandwidth consumption continues to grow, keeping costs up.
9. Seamless security: Scalability remains the big hurdle.
10. IP Version 6: Translation requirements and limited motivation for adoption will keep this quiet.
SOURCE: META Group’s Global Networking Strategies service. For more information, visit www.metagroup.com.
