Linux too fragmented to succeed?

If one desktop Linux distribution were to gain a significant lead over all the others, it could boost mainstream Linux adoption significantly.

After all, desktop Linux makes a compelling replacement for Windows XP for organizations about to refresh their hardware or software, offering lower per-head costs than a move to Vista or Windows 7.

But so far, the ideal Linux desktop remains a moving target.

Much of the success of Linux lies in government agencies and universities deployments. While countries such as Russia plan to develop a Linux-based alternative to Windows the surge in netbook use has also been a boost for Linux.

Unlike Windows or Mac OS X, each of which is the product of a single vendor, Linux comes in many different distributions that target the desktop, and each has its own look and feel.

Some are based on the Gnome desktop environment, while others use KDE, and still others let the user choose between both. Icons, color schemes, desktop backgrounds, menus, directory arrangements, control panels, and available software choices will all vary depending on which distribution is installed. We speak of Linux as if it were a single, coherent entity, but from the user’s perspective, there’s really no such thing.

Having a single version of Linux as the de facto standard for the enterprise desktop would make training easier, increase Linux’s attractiveness to individual home users, and lower barriers of entry for commercial software vendors. All of this in turn would make Linux more competitive with Windows and Mac OS X.

Could one contender emerge as the desktop Linux leader?

However, “one Linux to rule them all” seems unlikely.

The market is rich with competition, and neither commercial Linux vendors nor open source developers are likely to agree on a single vision.

The current darling of desktop Linux is Ubuntu, which has garnered praise for its clean, streamlined UI and attention to ease of use.

Ubuntu founder Mark Shuttleworth has made user experience a top priority for the distribution, citing Mac OS X as the target to beat. The next version of Ubuntu, he says, “will have a designer’s fingerprints all over it,” further cementing Ubuntu’s lead in look and feel.

But there are plenty of other goals for a desktop Linux distribution beyond aesthetics. Novell, for example, has made interoperability with Windows a primary goal for its commercial SLED distribution. It endured heavy criticism for partnering with Microsoft in 2006, but as a result of that partnership, it says, SLED is easier to integrate with Windows networks and Microsoft Office than other distributions.

Elsewhere, Xandros also emphasizes Windows interoperability, but more recently it has begun offering OEM solutions for hardware manufacturers, including pared-down desktop experiences for netbooks. And Mandriva pays special attention to the needs of new users, offering wizard-based installers and effortless hardware support on a variety of PCs and laptops.

Further clouding the issue, a variety of free, community-developed distributions are available — including Debian, Fedora, and OpenSuse, among others — for those who can’t afford or choose not to use a commercial product.